Prosperity makes friends, adversity tries them...

"The economy in Ireland has been rampaging ahead for the last 15 years. Barring an international, political or natural catastrophe, things can only get better for the Irish." This was the US comic Eddie Murphy's 'insightful' take on Ireland a few years ago. Amidst its silliness, there's a funny sort of accuracy. Until the current financial crisis, Ireland managed to dodge international, political and natural catastrophe quite nicely, and funnily enough the "Troubles" went away. Now there is an economic crisis, and it would seem the "Troubles" are back.

To what extent they are back remains to be seen, perhaps the recent violence is isolated, and not representative of the broader community perspective. For my money, though, the single biggest thing that brought peace to Ireland in the last 20 years was economic prosperity - community and religious lines faded amidst greater opportunity, and would-be terrorists were given the chance of economic independence; a home and a reasonable standard of living to support their families. Not all took the opportunity, but more and more did. Belfast in particular grew into a confident and prosperous city. Billions of pounds of investment has been pumped into the city. The Victoria Square shopping complex, boasts the most successful House of Fraser in the UK and the soon to be completed £85mm Obel Tower Complex, which overlooks Belfast Lough, had all of its 180 apartments reserved within 48 hours of going on the market.

Undoubtedly, Belfast's middle classes have benefited from the "peace dividend". Some areas have experienced unbridled growth and prosperity, which albeit on the wane currently, won't be any worse affected by the global financial crisis than other prosperous parts of the UK. Other less fortunate areas, such as the Drumbeg Estate in Craigavon are destitute, however. Among rows of grey, pebble-dashed, terraced houses, the rates of suicide, drug abuse and unemployment are high, and there is likely a pervasive and growing sense of hopelessness, as what existed of a local economy falters. The disaffected youth whose prospects are pretty weak, provide excellent recruiting material for dissident Republican or Loyalist groups. It's scary to note that one of those being questioned in Craigavon about PC Stephen Carrolls murder is only 17 years old - he was only 5 when the Good Friday Agreement was signed. His formative years were relatively peaceful years in Northern Ireland, so why has he fallen by the wayside?

Many political commentators would like to suggest that political will, and effective negotiation were the most important tranquilizers in Northern Ireland. It certainly suited political needs to say so. While the Good Friday Agreement was an amazing political achievement, taking people off the breadline by creating real jobs and the opportunity for personal and family prosperity I think was the biggest catalyst in the peace process.

With economic prosperity failing, I can't help but associate the recent violence with diminished prospects for potential troublemakers. The Northern Irish economy is expected to fall in size by 4% this year, and while unemployment at close to 6% is better than the UK average, there is no real job creation in the region outside of public sector work. The growing fear of social unrest as the economy falters isn't isolated to Ireland. Across the world age-old hatreds will sadly be reproduced and falsely blamed for hardship and diminished opportunity.

Despite inch-by-inch progress, community divisions were never truly removed in Northern Ireland, only that their relevance became less pressing when greater opportunity was prevalent. To show how much has stayed the same in the region, it's interesting to note that as of 2009, 95% of children in Northern Ireland still go to religiously segregated schools. Cross religious or community divides were faded by prosperity, but not truly addressed. The "catchment" age for many of the Unionist or Republican terrorists in Ireland, or anywhere else for that matter, is likely to be between the ages of 15 to 25. If prospects are low for this age group, there is an increased likelihood of "taking up the Cause", and entering the armed fray. The killings of three members of the British security forces in Northern Ireland last week has brought back memories of some very bad times in Irish history. At an official level there has been a concerted push to suggest that the killers are isolated have no support from the community.

In an article in the Independent this week called "Real IRA, Real Life" there is an interview with 'Mark', who is an officer in the NI Police (PSNI), who suggests that at ground level this just isn't true. "Not a single person at ground level really believes it. Everybody knows there is support for them." He points to the walls of the housing estates in County Down close to where PC Carroll was shot on Monday. The stencilled images of gunmen right by the murder scene provocatively flanking the words "Still at War". In Craigavon, where Constable Carroll died, the local newspaper said people "joined together to speak with a single voice" in opposition to his murder. Politically sound words, but fundamentally not true. There was a candlelit vigil, and flowers were laid, but after a 37 year-old man and a teenager were arrested there was also trouble. Wheelie bins were set on fire, and memorial flowers were vandalised. The "unsaid" is that there is strong community support for what has happened.

The story told by the Northern Ireland tourist board to those who are coming for this weeks St. Patrick's day parties is one of great economic success and transformation. Peace and prosperity have lasted longer than a decade, and it's clear to see. Great old buildings have been restored and new ones built, money has poured in from across the European Union and the US, jobs have been created and cafes and swanky new restaurants opened. All of this very real prosperity is at risk though, as it is in most places on the planet currently. Much of this new wealth is unsustainable in the same way it is elsewhere.

When the tourist board markets destination Belfast, it fails to mention, unsurprisingly, the high concrete and steel peace walls running through the town, which are not historic attractions but very practical obstacles to people fighting each other. The city has 40 peace lines, which is almost twice as many as when the Good Friday Agreement was signed in 1998.

As the prospects for teenagers in Belfast diminish, so does the likelihood that the recent violence is an aberration. As the disillusioned and unemployed look for a place to vent their anger about their misfortune, they will more and more likely revert to the ways of old. "We have a hot-blooded youth here in Northern Ireland" says Daniel O'Sullivan, a Belfast youth worker. "They only see the glamour of the olden days. They want to identify with something that is rebellious. The older people will tell you that history repeats itself: that the original IRA became respectable, and the Provisionals arose out of that. There is a very real danger that it is happening again. The difficult economic environment is making it more and more likely, as the alternatives for the young are diminishing."

The recent violence in Ireland is synonymous with other politically charged violence elsewhere in the world. The consequences of the global financial crisis stretch considerably further than diminished pension funds or distressed banks. The social consequences of increased unemployment, and a sense of reduced opportunity stretch far and wide. It may be coincidental that cross community tension is increasing in Northern Ireland, at a time of economic distress, but I don't think it should be surprising. Throughout history, the correlation between economic prosperity and rates of social dischord is extremely high - and I don't think it will be any different in the current economic crisis. Prosperity makes friends, adversity tries them.